A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
